Synopses of papers presented at IDEA AGM/Public Meeting on 23 Feb 2007 in Dublin.

Subject: Synopsis of Paper by Dr Elizabeth Cullen

Note: These are preliminary findings and are subject to peer review

The third assessment report of the International Panel on Climate Change reported in 2001, that globally averaged temperatures had increased by 0.6 degrees Celsius, over the 20th century and issued projections for 2050 and 2100. Climate change is expected to have both direct and indirect impacts on health. In Ireland, the mean annual air temperature is also increasing, and the mean linear increase in temperature of 0.5 0C over the last 100 years, is comparable to the global rise.

The health impacts of these changes on the Irish population were estimated and quantified where possible. This was achieved by using temperature outputs from global climate models modified for Irish conditions, and driven by specified scenarios, using curve fitting and modelling techniques. Reductions are seen in mortality, increasing as time progresses. The reductions are evident in total mortality and specifically in cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, and are greatest in the older population. Mortality increases more rapidly with higher temperatures than it decreases with lower temperatures and mortality will increase from future heatwaves but it is difficult to quantify as we have not yet experienced such high temperatures, from which we can accurately determine such future mortalities. Preliminary work indicates that people in the over 75 year age group are the most vulnerable.

Changes in the incidence of food-borne disease were estimated, and increases in the future incidence of salmonella, campylobacter and E Coli 0157 were quantified.

The incidence of cryptosporidiosis and VTEC may also increase, particularly in areas where the water supply is predominantly from private wells. There is the possibility of increases in other infectious diseases, including malaria, but they are unlikly to get a strong foothold if current public health structures remain in place. Increases may also occur in the incidence of allergic diseases, and skin cancer. Increases in the instances of flooding may cause casualties. The need to curb greenhouse gasses is stressed.